Articles
1. Introduction with background and purpose.
2. All models are wrong and some models are harmful.
3. A few thoughts about human error. When adverse actions shouldn't be considered errors.
4. Human operators are really people, and they're the most complex and least deterministic component of a non-autonomous system.
5. Probabilities and possibilities. Why a probabilistic treatment of human behavior is impractical.
6. Probabilities and plausibility. An alternative construct that reconciles frequentist and Bayesian probabilities.
7. Analysis methods, including Bow Tie, STAMP/STPA, and event trees.
8. Swiss cheese? The Swiss Cheese model may not apply to all cases; some may be due to specific fragilities.
9. Probabilities and dependencies. Failing to recognize dependencies between intended barriers or to account for conditional probabilities can lead to overestimates of safety.
10. Predictions. The more confident someone is in their predictions, the more likely they are to be wrong.
11. Safety policies and procedures: why can't they compete with wanting to save time?