Final thoughts

In this series, I’ve tried to bring together ideas from finance, psychology, risk management, probability, analysis methods, prediction, and human factors to gain insights into better anticipating, analyzing, and assessing human-related risks. The common theme throughout is the tension between expectations and evidence. One of the things that makes an assumption an assumption is that it’s taken for granted - difficult to recognize let alone to question. But this is one of the most important things anyone working in safety can do.

The most difficult assumptions to recognize may be those related to human factors. It’s tempting for anyone to believe that, because they’re human, they’re able to predict how other people will react to situations. But people systematically overestimate the extent to which other people think like they do, and it takes a certain level of enlightened awareness of this tendency for people to resist it, to recognize their assumptions and acknowledge that they may be wrong. Every surprising incident should point to such an opportunity; it surprises because it violates an assumption or belief.

I hope these insights will help you and your organization manage these risks better.